Sheffield United look to continue their improving home form and cling to their fading survival hopes when they welcome an Aston Villa side that has been far more ordinary as visitors on Saturday.

The last-place Blades enter the weekend nine points beneath the safety line with 16 matches remaining following a 3-2 loss at Crystal Palace in which they twice held the lead. But they’ve taken all but two of their 10 total Premier League points while playing in front of the home supporters at Bramall Lane.

Surprisingly, one of those scarce Blades away results came in these sides’ previous meeting, a 1-1 draw that ruined Villa’s perfect home league record. But if Unai Emery’s men are going to remain in the fight for the top four, they’ll have to do better as an away side in the back third of the season after posting a 4-4-3 record (W-L-D) in their league travels so far.

Here is my Sheffield United vs Aston Villa prediction.

The Blades have been considerably more dangerous going forward since Chris Wilder took the reins from Paul Heckingbottom. But too often that improved prowess in front of goal has been wasted, as it was in Tuesday’s defeat at Selhurst Park.

They had a dream start through Ben Brereton Diaz’s second Premier League goal in the first minute and led for the second time when James Mcatee made it 2-1 in the 20th minute. 

But Sheffield only spent a total of 23 minutes in front on the day, and after they went behind after Michael Olise scored Palace’s third midway through the second half, they created only one chance of significance — Anel Ahmedhodzic’s header that struck the woodwork.

We’ve seen two pretty starkly different tactical blueprints in Wilder’s return to the club he previously managed at the League Championship level. 

United held 25% possession or less in their four league fixtures against Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City.  The result was three defeats and a 1-1 draw against Villa, which the Blades led through Cameron Archer’s tap-in on 87 minutes before Nicolo Zaniolo’s dramatic last-gasp leveling header.

They’ve held 40% of the ball or more in their other four league games since the change, scoring seven times but still earning just four points from that sample.

Villa may have briefly flirted with the top of the table this season, but on their travels, they’ve defended more like a mid-table squad.

The Villains’ 19 away goals conceded is only the ninth-fewest allowed in the league — and worse than the figure posted by clubs like Wolverhampton Wanderers, Brentford and Everton. Trips to Arsenal, Brighton, Manchester City and West Ham still await Emery's squad. 

That said, their previous draw against the Blades was the Villains’ only league blemish against a team that is in the bottom three in points earned (not including an away draw against Everton, who currently sit in the bottom three on account of a 10-point disciplinary sanction).

Villa’s “worst” loss was a 2-0 defeat back in early November at Nottingham Forest. But the Trees were a better side than they’ve been in the last three months, back when a healthy and fully fit Taiwo Awonyi was leading the line.

Most recently, Villa may have played Newcastle United at the wrong time in their 3-1 defeat in midweek, with the Magpies finally regrouping following a brutal, injury-riddled fall.

And Ollie Watkins' late consolation goal could be signs of better things to come. He now has 10 in the league this season after snapping a six-game stretch without scoring in league play.

Prediction

Villa are the higher-quality side here, but there is a characteristic both teams share. They rarely score multiple goals without also conceding.

United have scored multiple goals in five league games, and they have been outscored 11-10 in those contests. Villa have scored two or more goals in 12 league games while keeping a clean sheet in only one of those.

Add the Blades' far better attacking record at home, as well as a more aggressive posture in general since Wilder has taken over, and the play here is to parlay a yes wager on both teams to score with a total landing above 2.5.

At even money and an implied 50% probability — with agreement on the price across multiple books — it might feel expensive at first. But it's a wager that has cashed in 13-of-22 league games between United's home fixtures and Villa's travels in league play. I wouldn't play it much lower than even odds, though.