Royals vs Orioles odds have the Orioles installed as -125 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 7.5. For my Royals vs Orioles pick, I will be looking at the total.

Orioles vs Royals on Saturday features a battle of aces with Corbin Burnes starting for Baltimore and Cole Ragans for Kansas City.

This is the second head-to-head matchup between Burnes and Ragans this season — the two squared off on April 3, which resulted in a 4-3 Orioles victory. The duo combined for 12 innings and two runs allowed (both from Burnes), but neither factored into the decision.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Orioles prediction.

Right-hander Corbin Burnes has performed tremendously on the mound in his inaugural season with Baltimore. Through four starts, he is 2-0 with a commanding 2.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Burnes' underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 74th percentile in xBA and 80th percentile in xERA. This success is likely to continue against Kansas City, a team he has dominated through his career with a 2-0 record and 1.52 ERA across four starts. There were seven or fewer total runs scored in three of those four outings.

Following Burnes is one of this year's best bullpens thus far. Entering this matchup, the Orioles' relief staff ranks in the top 10 in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

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Between Burnes and the bullpen, Baltimore should have no issue keeping Kansas City's bats quiet. This season, the Royals rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA and OBP. Their power numbers are stronger, but that shouldn't be an issue against a pitcher of Burnes' caliber.

However, the good news for Kansas City is that its ace can still win them this game in a low-scoring affair as left-hander Cole Ragans takes the mound. Through four starts, Ragans boasts a stellar 1.93 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. There were seven or fewer total runs scored in all four of those outings.

Like Burnes, we shouldn't have to worry about regression with Ragans as he ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA and Barrel%. Again like Burnes, Ragans is followed by a bullpen that ranks in the top 12 in ERA.

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both starting pitchers are among the best in baseball, both statistically and analytically. They are each followed by a relief staff that ranks in the top 12 in ERA, which makes it unsurprising that there were only seven runs scored in the previous Burnes-Ragans matchup earlier this month.

The reason this total can still be found between 7.5 and 8 is that both lineups are capable of producing runs. With that said, this current Kansas City lineup possesses a fade-worthy .211 BA, .237 SLG and .223 wOBA through 81 career plate appearances against Burnes.

On the other hand, this current Baltimore lineup owns an even-worse .074 BA, .111 SLG and .177 wOBA through 32 career plate appearances against Ragans.