The UFC 294 odds board today features a pay-per-view main event and rematch of Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski and a co-main event of middleweights Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev.

Below, I've made my UFC 294 picks and have put together all 13 fight breakdowns for Saturday afternoon's event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

The UFC 294 preliminary card begins today at 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT) on regular ESPN+, and then the five-fight UFC 294 main card will commence on ESPN+ PPV at 2 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all 13 fights on the UFC 294 fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

Crowdsourced Projections: Sharabutdin Magomedov (75.3%) 

Saturday's prelims start at 10 a.m. ET, and you should be in front of your TV for the first bout.

It's a potential banger in the middleweight division between the undefeated, one-eyed debutant "Bullet" Sharabutdin Magomedov and powerful Brazilian striker Bruno Silva, a former M-1 Global middleweight champion who has faced plenty of tough Russians and seen more difficult opponents – including Alex Pereira – throughout his 32-fight MMA career.

Silva owns a 4-3 record in the UFC's middleweight division, and Magomedov is taking a significant step up in competition. The Russian lost his eye in a 2018 training accident, and he stepped away from fighting for nearly three years after the injury.

However, he's 7-0 with six wins via finish since returning to MMA, albeit against relatively low-level fighters.

Magomedov has the longer legs and should be the faster man and the better kicker in this matchup. However, Silva has a slight reach advantage and may have both the more technical and more powerful hands – and could provide superior optics for judges by landing more head strikes in the pocket exchanges.

I projected Magomedov as nearly a -300 favorite but have no interest in laying juice on the debutant in what could amount to a close and competitive striking affair. We don't have much information or tape on Magomedov's offensive grappling, and it's possible he can cover his pricetag by taking down and submitting Silva (seven career submission losses).

However, if he chooses to engage in a pure kickboxing match, this fight may look like a coinflip, and Silva may provide significant value relative to his pricing.

I project value concerning Magomedov to win by decision (projected +279, listed +360 at BetRivers) and the fight to reach a decision (projected +185, listed +210). Alternatively, I also like the Over 1.5 Rounds, considering the potential for a low-paced, distance-striking match that may heat up late as Magomedov gets comfortable inside the octagon.

Lay the juice on the Over 1.5 (to -130), and consider one of the plus-money decision props for round-robin tickets.

Crowdsourced Projections: Victoria Dudakova (85.7%)

The only women's bout on Saturday's card features one of the most significant age discrepancies (14 years) that I have seen between UFC opponents.

As I regularly discuss, when UFC opponents have at least a seven-year age gap, the betting market tends to undervalue the younger fighter by more than 10%, winning at a 67.4% clip compared to average odds of -119, or 54.4% implied.

And when there is at least a decade in age between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time, at average odds of -143 (58.8% implied)

In addition to being younger, faster, and a better athlete, Victoria Dudakova is taller and longer (a two-inch advantage in both height and reach) than Jinh Yu Frey, who is more of a natural atomweight.

Frey can win the fight by denying takedown attempts and landing clean counters with her powerful left hand.

Still, Dudakova should overwhelm Frey with physicality, and I expect her to add a highlight to her reel in a fight in which she is the apparent "A side."

You can include Dudakova in parlays (up to -550) but also bet her to win inside the distance or by finish (projected +133, listed +150 at DraftKings).

Crowdsourced Projections: Nathaniel Wood (70.5%)

On average, featherweight bouts at the UFC level go to a decision at a 54.8% clip (-121 implied odds), roughly in line with the best available odds (-122) for Saturday's clash between Englishman Nathaniel Wood and Tajikistan native Muhammad Naimov in Abu Dhabi.

Wood, a former bantamweight, is extremely quick and technical but carries only a little power in his hands. And Naimov has never been finished across 16 amateur and professional bouts.

Naimov – the true featherweight with advantages in height (three inches taller), reach (one inch) and power – seems the likelier of the pair to finish this fight via strikes. Wood is an incredibly well-rounded fighter, but he does tend to get cracked and wobble a couple of times per fight, leading to opportunities for his opponents to finish or swinging the round optics against himself for scoring purposes.

Wood likely has the grappling advantage in this fight, but he doesn't always wrestle proactively, and he averages just about one takedown attempt per round (3.15 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy). He seems likelier to finish the fight on the mat – or win extended grappling stretches with top control after landing a takedown – and grappling as his Plan A may provide Wood with much less resistance and lead to a much cleaner win against this style of opponent.

It would also kill time off the clock while getting us closer to the final bell. I expect this bout to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (projected -157) and would bet that prop up to -145. I also expect Wood to win that decision more often than not and projected his decision prop at +103 (listed +120 at FanDuel). Consider including the plus-money prop on round-robin tickets.

I prefer to bet the fight to reach a decision – rather than betting on Wood to win that decision – because Naimov could swing a fight that Wood is otherwise winning back in his favor on a couple of brief moments. He could do that by wobbling Wood and landing the most impactful shot in two of the three rounds, thereby erasing most of Wood's minute-winning.

From a moneyline perspective, this is a 'dog-or-pass spot with Naimov (projected +239, listed +270 at BetMGM), but I would rather bet him to survive and keep this fight close and competitive for the duration.

Crowdsourced Projections: Anshulk Jubli (65.4%) 

Anton Jubli will look to stay undefeated on Saturday as a significant favorite against an opponent with actual UFC experience after closing as high as +145 in the semifinals (a narrow split decision) and +135 in the final of the Road to UFC lightweight tournament.

Jubli applies a ton of pressure and seemingly has good durability and cardio. Still, his skill set as a martial artist is extremely raw, and it isn't easy to imagine him making significant improvements as a fighter while working with lower-level training partners.

That's not to say that Mike Breeden is working out of American Top Team or Xtreme Couture. Still, the Kansas native has had an unflattering UFC run due to a pair of opponents – Terrance McKinney and Alexander Hernandez – who met their typical early win condition.

Breeden excels at surviving and working his way back into his fights. His back-and-forth bout with Natan Levy, in which Breeden outpaced his opponent 71-46 in the third round after taking a beating, indicates his ability to compete at this level.

Even in losses, Breeden has proven himself against a far higher level of competition than anything Jubli has faced.

If Jubli covers his moneyline, he must finish Breeden in Round 1. However, I expect the American to win this fight about 35% of the time. You can fire on Breeden small pre-fight and look to add more live after five minutes.

Additionally, or alternatively, consider betting on Breeden to win in Round 2 (+1300), Round 3 (+1800), or by decision (projected +477, listed +650). Or bet Breeden in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Over 1.5 Rounds at +380. His win condition should be weighted more heavily toward the fight's second half.

Crowdsourced Projections: Sedriques Dumas (71.6%)

Abu Azaitar is returning to the UFC octagon after a 2.5-year layoff (last fought March 27, 2021) against a fighter nine years his junior who is both five inches taller and three inches longer.

As I mentioned earlier, younger fighters are typically undervalued in that large of an age discrepancy, never mind the other factors pointing toward Dumas in this fight.

Although his skill set is still developing, Dumas may be the superior technician across all aspects of MMA; he uses his length well in striking exchanges but showed vastly improved wrestling and grappling in his recent win over Cody Brundage. Dumas has all the offensive grappling upside in the fight, but likely also superior cardio and durability.

As a result, it's hard to find a reason to back Azaitar, but it's also difficult to jump in fully on Dumas after his line ballooned from -170 to -250 in recent days. The current price is much closer to correct by my estimation (projected -252). However, I like Dumas as a small parlay piece up to -250. And I'd need -230 to fire a straight bet on his moneyline.

I don't see value concerning the total or any winning method props, so we'll look for pieces to pair with Dumas or wait for his line to drop back into range.

Bets

Crowdsourced Projections: Javid Basharat (78.2%)

After a long career on the regional scene, Victor Henry entered the UFC with a short-notice upset (as high as +425) against Raoni Barcelos, dropped his subsequent bout while taking a step up in competition as a -440 favorite against Raphael Assuncao, and took a split decision over Tont Gravely as a -150 favorite in March.

Henry enters Saturday's card as the most significant underdog among all 13 fights, but in a bout favored more heavily than the rest (-225) to reach a decision. And on that factor alone, he's potentially worth an underdog flier.

The striking exchanges should be highly competitive if not potentially favor Henry, who is extremely active at range (18.4 significant strike attempts per minute in his UFC debut). He's also a strong defensive wrestler and counter-grappler who allowed just six takedowns on 29 attempts against a trio of solid wrestlers – while spending 7.5 minutes across 45 total minutes (17%) in the octagon getting controlled.

Javid Basharat won't shoot 17 takedowns like Gravely. He's probably good for six to 10 at most across a 15-minute fight. And while Basharat is an excellent scrambler, I don't trust his ability to keep Henry down and hold him in dominant positions for significant stretches of the fight.

As a result, Henry should be able to deny some takedowns – and return to his feet in relatively short order after others – and resume attempting to outpace Basharat on the feet.

Ultimately, Basharat's speed and movement, in addition to whatever grappling success he might have, may prove the difference and see him get his hand raised after a close and competitive scrap.

Henry may ultimately prove to be a value trap at his pricing in Abu Dhabi, but I do think you can justify a bet on his side; the fight should play out much closer than his price tag suggests.

Additionally, I like the fight to reach a decision nearly 75% of the time – even higher than the betting market – and would either bet that prop to -255 or use it as a parlay piece.

And I'll consider betting Henry to +400, but I'd instead load up on the fight to go longer than watch him get screwed by some unfavorable judging.

Crowdsourced Projections: Trevor Peek (66.4%) 

On Saturday against all-action Trevor Peek, the Dubai-based Mohammad Yahya will become the first Emirati to compete in the UFC.

At this point of Peek's career, I'm looking to bet against the brawler when he faces strong grapplers or durable, technical strikers, and I don't think Yahya fits either of those archetypes.

Yahya is willing to pressure and throw down, but Peek should get the best of that game against almost any opponent.

While his striking is highly unorthodox, and he seemingly has no game plan as his fights extend, Peek is a powerhouse for opponents; he hits hard, is extremely difficult to put away, and never stops coming forward. Peek seemingly has the best attributes to fit his preferred fighting style.

This fight should be a car crash for as long as it lasts. But I trust Peek's hardware more than most to come out standing on the other side of any brawl.

I project Peek closer to -200 in this fight, but I'm not as interested in laying his moneyline at -170 as in betting his finish props. If Peek is going to justify his price tag, he needs to bonk his opponent, not win a clean 15-minute decision with superior point-fighting abilities, while mixing his striking and grappling. And any close decision would likely favor the hometown fighter, Yahya.

Bet Peek to win by KO/TKO (projected -113, listed +100), inside the distance (projected-130, listed -125), or in Round 1 (+220). I also like the Under 1.5 Rounds (-125) at a better price than Peek's moneyline.

Crowdsourced Projections: Muhammad Mokaev (66.4%)

Another fight on this card with a significant age discrepancy; Muhammad Mokaev is 14 years younger than Tim Elliot. As I mentioned earlier in the Dudakova-Frey fight, when there is at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time, at average odds of -143 (58.8% implied).

I'm not as high on Mokaev's potential as other analysts, and I have concerns about his physical condition after seemingly having his knee shredded in his last fight against Jafel Filho in March. However, Elliott looks extremely sucked out cutting to flyweight and is much older (36) than the divisional average (32).

Mokaev should be the much quicker athlete; he owns a four-inch reach advantage and should win most of the grappling exchanges, and that's where I expect this bout to take place.

Elliott generally wins fights by out-wrestling opponents after attacking them from strange angles on the feet. If he doesn't win the grappling exchanges against Mokaev, his upside in this matchup is a close decision where he outlands Mokaev on volume. Conversely, Mokaev seemingly has all of the finishing upside.

For all of Elliott's offensive grappling success, he has lost via submission four times in the UFC, and he consistently leaves openings for opponents when he's getting the worst of the exchanges. And I question his durability as he continues to cut to flyweight in his late 30s after more than 30 professional bouts.

I projected Mokaev's submission prop closer to +180 and would play that winning method down to +195.

Crowdsourced Projections: Said Nurmagomedov (74.1%)

I have generally – and unsuccessfully – bet against Said Nurmagomedov (unrelated to Khabib) at the UFC level, viewing him as a relatively low-volume striker with minimal offensive wrestling enthusiasm.

However, I like him in this fight against Muin Gafurov and project Nurmagomedov as the most significant moneyline edge – relative to the betting market – of any fighter on the card.

His controversial loss to Jonathan Martinez has aged well; Nurmagomedov won the distance striking (31-22), landed three takedowns, and had a pair of submission attempts. More than 70% of fans and 60% of media scorecards scored the bout for the Russian.

Nurmagomedov has an elite guillotine choke, which he can sink in against overly enthusiastic grapplers. Even if he doesn't get it on the first attempt, Nurmagomedov will keep adjusting until he finds a way to cinch up that choke; I'm highly impressed by his mastery of the technique.

Unless Gafurov can successfully wrestle Nurmagomedov for three rounds without getting his head stuck in that guillotine – and that seems unlikely, given his substandard cardio and 1-5 record in decisions – I have difficulty seeing him winning consistent minutes in this matchup.

Gafurov will have moments in the striking and potentially land takedowns, too. Still, Nurmagomedov should land significantly more damage on the feet and seems more likely to keep his game coherent for a 15-minute fight.

Neither fighter has lost inside the distance in their professional careers, but Nurmagomedov seemingly has the better hardware. Gafurov has suffered a knockdown in consecutive bouts under the UFC banner.

Bet Nurmagomedov up to -260, or include him in a parlay up to -275.

Crowdsourced Projections: Ikram Aliskerov (84.3%)

Ikram Aliskerov, a 30-year-old Russian whose only career loss is a brutal knockout at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev, will fight short-notice replacement Warrley Alves on Saturday.

Alves, a true welterweight, is moving up a division in place of Nassourdine Imavov, and perhaps cutting less weight will help his cardio.

Alves is typically a problem for opponents in the first round before fading drastically when his opponents turn the tide. Three of his past four losses have come in Round 2.

While Alves typically has strong takedown defense and carries power in his hands, I wonder if those attributes will translate as well with the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, as it might go from 135 to 145. He's also at a four-inch reach disadvantage.

Alves may be the faster man early, but as that gap closes when he tires in the second round, Aliskerov should start to take over and eventually put him away. As a result, I would wait to bet Aliskerov until live after Round 1; you may get a significantly better number than his pre-fight moneyline.

Additionally, look to bet Aliserov to win in Round 2 (+450) and/or Round 3 (+1100), down to +300 and +900, respectively; the cardio dynamic in almost any Alves fight makes his opponent's late-round props appealing.

Crowdsourced Projections: Magomed Ankalaev (77.8%)

Ultimately, I don't project value on the side, total or any winning-method props for Saturday's featured light-heavyweight bout between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.

I projected Ankalaev as a 350 favorite, so you could toss him into parlays at a break-even price, but that isn't easy to justify in a high-variance division against the most high-variance fighter on the planet in Johnny Walker.

While Ankalaev is an extremely well-rounded fighter who may eventually reign over the 205-pound division, he falls victim to his complacency; Ankalev is a relatively low-volume striker and doesn't attempt more than one takedown per round. Too often, he's fighting to the level of his opponent rather than his true potential.

A fight with Walker may bring the best out of Ankalev – like his matchups with the similarly aggressive Ion Cutelaba. However, Walker has been more measured in recent fights, out-pointing the likes of Anthony Smith in a relatively complete performance.

Walker can use his length (seven-inch reach advantage) to kick Ankalaev from range, and if Walker doesn't engage, perhaps he can lull Ankalaev into another low-paced effort. Walker has shown slick submission skills in recent fights, but if Ankalaev wants, he can land takedowns against the taller fighter (60% takedown defense) and rack up control time.

Ankalaev could be a better offensive wrestler, but once he gets on top of opponents, he's strong and capable of keeping them down for the remainder of the round.

The only potential edge I see is Anakalev by decision (projected +222, listed +240 at BetRivers); however, I don't consider that line as anything more than a round-robin piece. I have a feeling that Walker goes to sleep the first time he eats a check left hook.

Crowdsourced Projections: Khamzat Chimaev (75.7%)\

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Dan Tom.

Ultimately, we arrived at a very similar conclusion, but I am of two minds about how you can bet on this fight.

The first is to bet Khamzat's finish props, including his inside-the-distance prop (-120) or Round 1 prop (+230). If Khamzat is going to justify his steep price tag, he needs to get the former welterweight champion out of there inside one round. Otherwise, Usman should be able to work his way back into the fight, similar to the Chimaev-Burns matchup.

Usman took the bout on short notice – in place of Paulo Costa – but hasn't had as much time to fill out the weight class as Chimaev, who never came close to making 170 in his last scheduled fight in September 2022.

Regardless of the short-notice nature, he should have a better gas tank. Usman hasn't fought a three-round bout since 2018 – a streak of 10 consecutive scheduled five-round fights. He can push a hard pace over 15 minutes and match Khamzat's intensity.

Chimaev tends to sprint from the opening bell, and while he showed a ton of heart in his win over Gilbert Burns, he was tiring in the second and third rounds. He's very hittable, absorbed many clean head strikes from Burns (53.6%), and Usman hits harder.

Chimaev is also more of a head-hunter than a diverse kickboxer. Leon Edwards picked apart Usman in their third fight with leg and body kicks. Khamzat prefers to close the distance and exchange in the pocket, which will only lead to high-variance exchanges between two huge hitters.

I still give Khamzat the advantage in those exchanges; he's seven years younger and seemingly much more durable. Still, Usman has a chance to catch Chimaev on the feet.

The grappling will not be quite as competitive, however. I view Chimaev as the better wrestler, and it's telling that Usman has both gone to his wrestling less frequently and had less success doing so in recent fights. I have to give the wrestling edge to Chimaev over a 36-year-old Usman with two bad knees, and the former is also the far more dangerous submission grappler.

As a result, I expect Ussman to fail to win minutes with takedowns and top time. He could win clinch positions against the fence and slow the fight down for stretches, but I expect Chimaev to have the more effective offensive grappling. Therefore, Usman needs to out-land Chimaev over 15 minutes or knock him out cold as he did to Jorge Masvidal.

Still, I'd expect Usman to come into his best win condition after Round 1, and you may get a better live price on Usman at that point.

Pre-fight, bet Chimaev to win inside the distance (to -125) and in Round 1 (to +175), and roll that into a live wager on Usman.

Crowdsourced Projections: Islam Makhachev (72.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and lightweight title bout, check out my Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2 preview.

Makhachev has moved from roughly a -360 favorite (78.2% implied) from the first bout to about -250 (71.4% implied) in the rematch. And I think the correction is an overadjustment relative to their meeting at UFC 284. I projected Makhachev as a 74.1% favorite (-281 implied) for the first fight, and I have him at 72.9% (-268 implied) for Saturday.

As a result, I recommended Volkanovski as the value side of the moneyline in the first fight but would instead target Makhachev at -245 or better in the rematch on Saturday.

The intangible factors – Volkanovski's arm injury, his limited training camp for this fight, and the lack of home fans cheering every time he lands a strike – may matter even more than the technical aspects of this rematch.

I expect this fight to reach a decision much more frequently (34% in February; 55% now) than the first fight. A standing knockout on either seems the likeliest possibility – and while both fighters wobbled one another in the first matchup, neither was notably worse for wear. Bet Makhachev to win by decision down to +140. I projected the line at +130.