The Detroit Tigers have an underrated team this season. They are off to a quick start — among the best in the AL Central — and have Casey Mize on the bump Tuesday against Martín Pérez and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mize struggled in his first start of the season against the Mets, not making it through the fifth inning. Pérez, meanwhile, has looked reliable for Pittsburgh and can keep the ball on the ground.

Pittsburgh is off to a strong start for a reason, and much of that has to do with its improved lineup. The Pirates already have a good bullpen, so with them being short favorites at home, this should be a no-brainer.

Let's dig into the MLB odds and make a Tigers vs. Pirates pick and prediction.

Mize did not pitch in 2023 because of Tommy John surgery, but he could be a fixture in the back of the Tigers’ rotation. His issue in his first start of the season, and dating back to 2021, has been loud contact. Overall, he has allowed an Average Exit Velocity of nearly 90 mph. He does not usually walk many hitters, so the 9.5% walk rate in that start against the Mets was a bit uncharacteristic of what we would see from Mize typically.

The Tigers can hit moderately well throughout the order, but the latter portion of the lineup could struggle. Mark Canha was a nice addition to the mix and Kerry Carpenter also flies under the radar. Spencer Torkelson slugged over .500 off lefties in 2023, but power throughout should keep the ball on the ground against a pitcher like Pérez.

In relief, the Tigers have weapons in Jason Foley, Andrew Chafin and Alex Lange, but middle relief options like Alex Faedo and Joey Wentz could be questionable if Mize takes another early exit.

Pérez is not the most talented pitcher, but he has made a career of keeping the ball on the ground. His 4.90 xERA was questionable because of the hard contact he has allowed, but he needs to eliminate walks more than anything. That is usually the issue that could knock him out of a game early.

The Pirates’ lineup is better, for the moment, than the Tigers’. Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen add a nice power boost at DH. Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor and Bryan Reynolds is an outfield that flies under the radar — all three had over 20 homers in 2023. Oneil Cruz being healthy provides tons of potential, and Ke’Bryan Hayes had a great second half in 2023. This team has the cracks filled where they sorely needed attention last season, which could propel them up the standings for the entirety of the season.

The relief staff for Pittsburgh is reliable. Aroldis Chapman, Josh Fleming and David Bednar provide experience this team just did not have last year (aside from Bednar). That group should be more than enough once Pérez is done for the day. With the lack of strikeouts, Pérez could pitch deep into this game.

Betting Pick & Prediction

Detroit and Pittsburgh should both turn some heads this season. With Mize pitching at this stage of the season, Pittsburgh has the edge with its veteran hurling the ball. The Pirates also have a bit more power to hit Mize early and get into the weaker part of the Detroit pitching staff.

Take the Pirates to win this one and play them to -135.

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