Perhaps no team is more familiar being in this position — just one game away from lifting the Lombardi Trophy — than the Kansas City Chiefs.

For the fifth time in six years, Patrick Mahomes is in the Super Bowl, though this year is a bit different. This is not the same Chiefs offense that saw Mahomes drop back and thrive through the air.

Rather, there’s been a shift of focus, an emphasis, if you will, on establishing the run.

The first bet I made as a Super Bowl prediction & pick was this Isiah Pacheco prop. Pacheco and his angry running has become a driving factor toward K.C.’s success in the postseason, and once again I’m expecting the Chiefs to rely on their second-year back.

Over 66.5 Rushing Yards

The Chiefs have made a concerted effort to get Pacheco the ball, and it’s paid dividends. But for some reason, it feels like the sportsbooks continue to set his prop too low.

This is not the same Kansas City offense as years past, and that’s not a bad thing. Patrick Mahomes remains the NFL’s best and the Chiefs have developed some solid receiving options around him, like Rashee Rice. But we’ve also seen a reliance on establishing the run, and Pacheco has lived up to expectations.

In his last eight games with 15+ rushes, Pacheco has gone over this current prop six times. He finished with 66 on the dot once in that span. In the playoffs, he is 3-for-3 to the over.

We’ve seen the way to beat this 49ers defense is in the trenches. The 49ers rank inside the top five in defensive DVOA against the pass but rank 15th against the run. Both the Packers (124 yards) and the Lions (138) dominated the ground game, both rushing for more than five yards per carry.

Playing behind Patrick Mahomes is a huge benefit for Pacheco. This is an offense starting to click on all cylinders which should allow for more explosive opportunities for Pacheco. In the last six games, he carried the ball for a 10-yard game each time. Oh and 20+ yards? In four of six.

In what should be a pretty neutral game script, expect Kansas City to rely on Pacheco as they have done in the back half of the season. We also shouldn’t see Clyde Edwards-Helaire spell Pacheco either, considering it’s the Super Bowl and Andy Reid will put his best players on the field as often as possible.

I love this prop and will continue to back Pacheco in the ground game, as I have over the last month plus.

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