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Celtics vs Pacers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Minutes Impacting Closeout Game Production

Updated:2024-06-18 15:26    Views:162

Sam Hauser Boston Celtics NBA Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference and advancing to the NBA Finals, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find our favorite NBA player props for Monday's Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

If we were playing NBA 2K, this is where you'd hit "sim to end" if you're the Pacers, who are down 0-3 and most likely playing Game 4 without All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The series is basically over, but there are still some player props worth wagering on.

Find out why I'm betting on NBA player props for T.J. McConnell, Al Horford, and Sam Hauser in my NBA picks on Monday, May 27.

Best Celtics vs Pacers prop picks today McConnell Under 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel) Horford Over 1.5 assists (-145 at bet365) Hauser Over 3.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Picks made on 5-27 at 7:00 a.m. ET.Read full analysis of each pick.

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Celtics vs Pacers player props for May 27 TEAM McConnell TEAM Horford TEAM Hauser Prop bet #1: T.J. McConnell Under 14.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton is tagged as questionable with a hamstring injury ahead of Game 4. While I don't think he'll play, you only stand to gain from any news regarding Haliburton's status with this Under bet on T.J. McConnell. With his scoring prop trading at 14.5, he's being priced as if Haliburton isn't playing. This number will move if Haliburton is good to go.

He dropped 23 points in Game 3 without Haliburton, which makes hitting the Under on 14.5 a bit nerve-racking. Even if Haliburton doesn't play, I think this number is too high for McConnell. 

McConnell is incredibly efficient in short spurts, but as his minutes increase, you don't necessarily see his production per minute stay as high. He played 29 minutes in Game 3, and it was a perfect storm for him to see as many minutes as Rick Carlisle would be willing to give him. The Pacers were winning for most of the game and he wasn't in any foul trouble.

When evaluating this prop, I increased McConnell's minutes to 30, and we still have a nice edge on the Under 14.5 points (-115) at FanDuel. I'm hard-pressed to believe he'll even see 30 minutes because he only reached 29 in Game 3 under ideal circumstances. 

He puts his body on the line and plays with maximum effort. He's now coming off a Game 3 with elevated minutes and has to play the Celtics again with just one day of rest. Carlisle showed us in Game 2 that when the game was a blowout, McConnell wasn’t going to be on the floor. With the Celtics favored by eight points, the Pacers facing elimination, and a potential vacation to Cancun looming, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his minutes reduced.

The key to this bet, though, is that we don't need reduced minutes for our edge; we have a massive edge even if he plays 30 minutes. McConnell is projected to score 12.5 points on Monday, which justifies pricing the Under 14.5 points at -202. However, it's available at FanDuel at -115.

T.J. McConnell prop: Under 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

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