It’s a do-or-die Game 4 for the Minnesota Timberwolves as they trail the Dallas Mavericks 3-0 in the Western Conference finals.

But before we find out if the T-Wolves stay alive or the Mavs are moving on to the NBA Finals, we have NBA “First Basket” bets to make.

The popular prop is self-explanatory: wager on which player you think will score the opening bucket of Game 4. 

This is a fun and frenetic bet, but also very unpredictable which is why the payouts start around +500 and go up. Recognize the risk involved and treat the “first basket” book like an appetizer to your NBA betting menu.

I run down possible first scorers for both Dallas and Minnesota and give my best NBA picks and Timberwolves vs Mavericks predictions for Tuesday, May 28.

Click on each name to jump to the full analysis

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First basket pick: Karl-Anthony Towns(+650 at BetMGM)

Amid a shooting slump, Karl-Anthony Towns told the media he shoots 1,500 practice shots per day – a claim that has come under fire by analysts and NBA foes. 

I don’t care if KAT is telling the truth or not, as long as he shoots the first shot Tuesday night. 

That’s been something he’s done in five of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 14 playoff games heading into Game 4. Despite that early activity, Towns has recorded Minnesota’s first basket only three times this postseason.

Head coach Chris Finch needs to snap KAT out of his funk and quick. I believe he’ll attempt to do so on the Wolves’ first possession of Game 4, drawing up something to get Towns an easy open look and boost his confidence the rest of the way.

First basket pick: Luka Doncic(+600 at FanDuel)

Luka Doncic has been Dallas’ most live option off the opening tip, recording the Mavericks’ first shot in five of 15 postseason games and recording the team’s first basket in six of those playoff outings.

He controlled the ball off the opening tip of Game 2 and set up first scorer Daniel Gafford for an alley-oop, rolling to the net for what could have been a running jumper had the help defender not come after Luka. That’s the thing about Doncic: he’s going to touch the ball on every possession.

He’s been an absolute killer in this series and would love nothing more than to get hot early and put Minnesota away. He’s been the Mavs’ opening option all season, scoring the team’s first basket in 16.5% of regular season contests, and is claiming that role at a 40% clip in the playoffs.