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Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prop Picks and Best Bets: Washington Sets Teammates Up for Success

Updated:2024-06-18 11:16    Views:75

PJ Washington Dallas Mavericks NBA Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We are one Dallas Mavericks victory away from an epic NBA Finals that would see Kyrie Irving face his old team, the Boston Celtics. The memes on X are going to have a generational run if that's the matchup, but Dallas must get by the Minnesota Timberwolves first.

Here are my NBA picks for the Game 3 matchup on May 28, featuring player props for Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels, and P.J. Washington

Best Timberwolves vs Mavs prop picks today Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 points (-120 at bet365) McDaniels Over 1.5 assists (+140 at bet365) Washington Over 1.5 assists (+120 at bet365)

Picks made on 5-28 at 7:00 a.m. ET.Read full analysis of each pick.

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Timberwolves vs Mavericks player props for May 28 Mavericks Alexander-Walker Timberwolves McDaniels Mavericks Washington Prop bet #1: Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 points

Let's say it like it is: Alexander-Walker isn't shooting well at all from beyond the arc in this series. His jump shot is cold, but I believe he could have a much larger role in Tuesday's Game 4 than we've seen in this series because of his defense — creating value in Nickeil Alexander-Walker's odds.

The Minnesota Timberwolves can't make Anthony Edwards the primary defender on Kyrie Irving because it makes Edwards expend too much energy on defense — leaving him with nothing for offense. 

In Game 3, Mike Conley was the primary defender, but he can't contain Irving and doesn't have the length to bother him. When you're down 3-0, you have to make a drastic move, and I think it will be Alexander-Walker seeing more minutes.

I don't believe these minutes will come at the expense of the other guards on the Timberwolves, but rather of the two bigs they always play. Dereck Lively is out for Game 4 with a neck strain, and after a few minutes of Dwight Powell in Game 3, the Dallas Mavericks opted to run with a smaller lineup without Daniel Gafford on the floor. 

If they go small again, there's no reason for Minnesota to play both bigs at the same time when it could go small and put NAW on Irving. Lively being out also weakens their rim protection and will open up driving lanes for Alexander-Walker to score at the rim.

Alexander-Walker is projected to score 5.4 points which allows us to price the over 3.5 points at -203, but it is available at -120.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker prop: Over 3.5 points (-120 at bet365)

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