When taking the risk of building a same-game parlay, it is best to find multiple legs based on the same thought. Looking at tonight’s Game 4 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks, that thought should be, “How will Dereck Lively II’s absence impact individual players?”

The Mavericks rookie took a brutal blow to the head in Game 3 and will miss at least one game as a result. He had been having a stellar postseason, averaging 8.5 points and 7.1 rebounds in 21.5 minutes per game through 15 playoff games. Someone has to grab his shots and boards, but who? And how will Lively’s absence impact other areas of the game?

Let’s focus on those questions in our free NBA picks before Timberwolves vs. Mavericks tips on Tuesday, May 28.

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Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 made 3sDaniel Gafford Over 10.5 pointsRudy Gobert Over 10.5 rebounds

Most of Lively’s impact was defensively. He helped the Dallas Mavericks form a wall in front of the rim to cut down on Anthony Edwards’ drives into the lane. That most showed itself in Game 1, when 12 of Edwards’ 16 shots came from beyond the arc. He fared better in that regard in Game 2, but still, seven of Edwards’ 17 shots were from deep.

To put that into postseason context, 36.8% of Edwards’ field-goal attempts came from deep in the first two rounds. Even when Edwards improved in Game 2, 41.1% of his shots were still from deep.

Edwards over-corrected in Game 3, taking 22 of his 24 shots inside the arc. Some of that was a reflection of Lively’s first-half injury, and some of it was an emphasis on Edwards doing what he does best. Both regards should continue tonight.

Without Lively, Daniel Gafford is Dallas’ best post presence, both offensively and defensively. Even with Lively around, Gafford cleared this points prop in Game 2 on 8 of 10 shooting. He should get a few more looks at the rim without Lively around. It will not take many to propel Gafford past his points prop.

On the other end of the court, Lively grabbed 20 rebounds in the first two games of this series, including 13 defensive boards. He was a key piece of why Rudy Gobert managed just 17 rebounds in the first two games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves should look to attack Lively’s absence. Gobert will know that is the intention before the tip. Frankly, some of Edwards’ drives may be partly attempts to get Gobert offensive putbacks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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